Article by: Kenneth J. Ester
Revealing Goff
The Lions are talking contract for Jared Goff and it seems most of the fans believe he is worth top QB pay. After all, he did just take us 30 minutes away from reaching the Super Bowl right? But is Goff really the reason we almost got to the Super Bowl? I would argue that this is more of a case where contrary to his surface stats, it is the Lions team that carried Goff and not the other way around.
On designed pass plays in 2023, Goff scrambled a total of 7 times. For QBs with at least 150 attempts, only Cousins and Trevor Siemian scrambled fewer times. This makes Goff one of the most stationary QBs in the NFL. Those 7 scrambles netted him a total of 4.4 yards. Also, I could not find full season stats, but after the Bye week, Goff's QBR was the worst in the NFL.
If you put these two things together, you find that Goff has nearly zero ability to scramble, and he is really bad under pressure. In other words he is a perfect candidate to be blitzed. Which would explain why only one QB was blitzed more in 2023 than Goff.
Currently, for the vast majority of the time, Goff gets away with this because he is playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, and has great WRs and a great scheme that gets them open. But what happens if one of those things falters?
In 2021, Goff came to a team that was struggling. The OL was dealing with some injuries, and they didnt have great WRs. In his first 9 games Goff 8 TDs to 6 picks. He was not very good at all.
Then the OL got healthy and the Lions signed Reynolds which took some coverage away from St.Brown. In the next 5 games Goff threw for 11 TDs to 2 picks.
This followed exactly what the word coming out of LA at the time of the trade had to say about Goff. That if everything was perfect, Goff looked great. But when any part of the offense faltered, Goff fell apart. In His first year in Detroit, he looked bad until the OL got healthy and the receivers got wide open. Then he looked good. In 2022 he proved it again.
Goff began the year lights out. He looked great because the Lions had a healthy offensive line and good receivers and a good scheme. Then Amon Ra St.Brown was injured. Over the next 6 games he either played hurt or did not play. In those 6 games, Goff threw 4 TDs to 4 picks. Once St.Brown was healthy again, and everything was perfect, Goff was again lights out.
In his first two years in Detroit, Goff was great when everything was perfect for him. When there was any issues for him to deal with, he did not raise his game to overcome those issues like an elite QB would do. He fell apart.
In his first two seasons, this is how Goff played....
Games that everything was perfect? --- 36 TDs to 5 picks
Games where things were not perfect? -- 12 TDs to 10 picks.
Everyone knows what happened in 2023 right? Goff was awesome, throwing 30 TDs to 12 picks for 4,575 yards. Everyone gets enamored with the basic on the surface stats. But look just a little closer. He had 4 games where he threw more picks than TDs and three more games where he threw as many picks as he did TDs.
The Lions were 12-5 last year. Goff gets so much credit from fans for the wins. Have you looked at his stats in the losses? In 5 losses, Goff threw a total of 7 TDs and 6 Picks. Those losses also accounted for half (15) of the sacks he had in the season.
Just a little extra stat to mull around. In the 4th QTR last year, Goff only had 1 TD to 3 Picks.
Here is another...
When His starting field position was on his own side of the field, Goff had only 1 TD to 6 picks. That means the other 29 TDS to 6 picks all came when he started in the opponents territory.
Look, every QB in the NFL needs blocking and open receivers to look good. Nobody is faulting Goff for looking great when everything is perfect. But that is exactly where the difference from being average to being great comes into play. The elite QBs, when things are not perfect, have a tendency to elevate their play and still get things done. They dont need everything to be perfect in order for them to be good. Elite QBs are great when everything is perfect and when things are not perfect, they drop down to being good. Goff is great when everything is perfect but when everything is not perfect, he drops down to average at best.
Goff is a QB who as long as the team is great and puts him in a position where everything is great, he looks great. But ask him to elevate his game when the team around him is struggling and it never happens. He becomes an average QB at best.
That is NOT what a team should invest top dollar for!
I cannot tell you how many times I have seen average backups or rookie QBs who were getting their first NFL experience of their career come in and look like super stars against the Lions defense. Remember Matt Flynn? Flynn threw 6 TDs against the Lions and it got him a major contract the next year. He turned out to be a major bust.
When a QB has a clean pocket and wide open receivers, he will look like a star. Every QB who comes out of college is good enough to look like a star in those circumstances. So from that perspective, there is absolutely nothing that Goff has done, that any backup QB in the NFL couldn't do in the same situation.
Why should the Lions pay top dollar to a QB who has only looked good when everything is perfect and has never been known to elevate his game when things are not perfect?
I understand the hype and exhilarating feeling of the Lions having a big season and almost making the Superbowl. I really do. I have been a Lions fan since the early 1980's. I saw them reach the championship game in 1991 as well. But the Lions did not get there in 2023 because Goff carried them. They got there because they put a complete team together that was great enough to carry Goff. Until Goff shows he can elevate his game and look good when those around him struggle, he is not carrying the Lions.
I would argue that the Lions would be better off trading Goff while his value is high, and getting a QB who can scramble to extend plays when it is needed. Most any QB can hit wide open receivers when they have all day in the pocket. Its what they do in plays that break down that matters, and Goff is one of the worst when that happens.
There seems to be this fear that if we trade Goff, we could end up with a worse QB. However, I would argue that is highly unlikely. As I have pointed out, most any QB will be good enough to look like a star if he has a clean pocket and wide open receivers. Most any QB will be about what Goff looks like on the Lions. If there is a drop off, it would not be much. But the lift it would give us to have a QB who can extend plays when they break down could be the difference of winning and losing a playoff game. Or the Super Bowl.
On designed pass plays in 2023, Goff scrambled a total of 7 times. For QBs with at least 150 attempts, only Cousins and Trevor Siemian scrambled fewer times. This makes Goff one of the most stationary QBs in the NFL. Those 7 scrambles netted him a total of 4.4 yards. Also, I could not find full season stats, but after the Bye week, Goff's QBR was the worst in the NFL.
If you put these two things together, you find that Goff has nearly zero ability to scramble, and he is really bad under pressure. In other words he is a perfect candidate to be blitzed. Which would explain why only one QB was blitzed more in 2023 than Goff.
Currently, for the vast majority of the time, Goff gets away with this because he is playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, and has great WRs and a great scheme that gets them open. But what happens if one of those things falters?
In 2021, Goff came to a team that was struggling. The OL was dealing with some injuries, and they didnt have great WRs. In his first 9 games Goff 8 TDs to 6 picks. He was not very good at all.
Then the OL got healthy and the Lions signed Reynolds which took some coverage away from St.Brown. In the next 5 games Goff threw for 11 TDs to 2 picks.
This followed exactly what the word coming out of LA at the time of the trade had to say about Goff. That if everything was perfect, Goff looked great. But when any part of the offense faltered, Goff fell apart. In His first year in Detroit, he looked bad until the OL got healthy and the receivers got wide open. Then he looked good. In 2022 he proved it again.
Goff began the year lights out. He looked great because the Lions had a healthy offensive line and good receivers and a good scheme. Then Amon Ra St.Brown was injured. Over the next 6 games he either played hurt or did not play. In those 6 games, Goff threw 4 TDs to 4 picks. Once St.Brown was healthy again, and everything was perfect, Goff was again lights out.
In his first two years in Detroit, Goff was great when everything was perfect for him. When there was any issues for him to deal with, he did not raise his game to overcome those issues like an elite QB would do. He fell apart.
In his first two seasons, this is how Goff played....
Games that everything was perfect? --- 36 TDs to 5 picks
Games where things were not perfect? -- 12 TDs to 10 picks.
Everyone knows what happened in 2023 right? Goff was awesome, throwing 30 TDs to 12 picks for 4,575 yards. Everyone gets enamored with the basic on the surface stats. But look just a little closer. He had 4 games where he threw more picks than TDs and three more games where he threw as many picks as he did TDs.
The Lions were 12-5 last year. Goff gets so much credit from fans for the wins. Have you looked at his stats in the losses? In 5 losses, Goff threw a total of 7 TDs and 6 Picks. Those losses also accounted for half (15) of the sacks he had in the season.
Just a little extra stat to mull around. In the 4th QTR last year, Goff only had 1 TD to 3 Picks.
Here is another...
When His starting field position was on his own side of the field, Goff had only 1 TD to 6 picks. That means the other 29 TDS to 6 picks all came when he started in the opponents territory.
Look, every QB in the NFL needs blocking and open receivers to look good. Nobody is faulting Goff for looking great when everything is perfect. But that is exactly where the difference from being average to being great comes into play. The elite QBs, when things are not perfect, have a tendency to elevate their play and still get things done. They dont need everything to be perfect in order for them to be good. Elite QBs are great when everything is perfect and when things are not perfect, they drop down to being good. Goff is great when everything is perfect but when everything is not perfect, he drops down to average at best.
Goff is a QB who as long as the team is great and puts him in a position where everything is great, he looks great. But ask him to elevate his game when the team around him is struggling and it never happens. He becomes an average QB at best.
That is NOT what a team should invest top dollar for!
I cannot tell you how many times I have seen average backups or rookie QBs who were getting their first NFL experience of their career come in and look like super stars against the Lions defense. Remember Matt Flynn? Flynn threw 6 TDs against the Lions and it got him a major contract the next year. He turned out to be a major bust.
When a QB has a clean pocket and wide open receivers, he will look like a star. Every QB who comes out of college is good enough to look like a star in those circumstances. So from that perspective, there is absolutely nothing that Goff has done, that any backup QB in the NFL couldn't do in the same situation.
Why should the Lions pay top dollar to a QB who has only looked good when everything is perfect and has never been known to elevate his game when things are not perfect?
I understand the hype and exhilarating feeling of the Lions having a big season and almost making the Superbowl. I really do. I have been a Lions fan since the early 1980's. I saw them reach the championship game in 1991 as well. But the Lions did not get there in 2023 because Goff carried them. They got there because they put a complete team together that was great enough to carry Goff. Until Goff shows he can elevate his game and look good when those around him struggle, he is not carrying the Lions.
I would argue that the Lions would be better off trading Goff while his value is high, and getting a QB who can scramble to extend plays when it is needed. Most any QB can hit wide open receivers when they have all day in the pocket. Its what they do in plays that break down that matters, and Goff is one of the worst when that happens.
There seems to be this fear that if we trade Goff, we could end up with a worse QB. However, I would argue that is highly unlikely. As I have pointed out, most any QB will be good enough to look like a star if he has a clean pocket and wide open receivers. Most any QB will be about what Goff looks like on the Lions. If there is a drop off, it would not be much. But the lift it would give us to have a QB who can extend plays when they break down could be the difference of winning and losing a playoff game. Or the Super Bowl.
